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An Introduction to the theory of probability

Andrey Vitjazev

Dear mages and students!

Current appeal to you is directed to seek and destroy the illusion that tore our mind for ages. It was imposed to every mortal through tales and fables about wizards, fantasy movies and computer games. All the magical characters are the same in one feature: the way they produce magical influence. It looks like this: mage casts the spell/draws a sign/touches amulet/or does anything of the kind and then a miracle happens. Always. As if it is inevitable.

And it looks simple and impressive. But in a real life, as many had already discovered, it happens it other way. Sometimes you feel all thumbs and there's nothing you can do about it. You sit there and strain for hours and result isn't even going to uppear. Well, what's the problem? The question is interesting indeed. But I've seen too many times when this question raised an utter obstacle before people. And they passed. And never again they returned to the magical path.

So in order for you not to join these unfortunate mages, I'd like to tell you the following near-scientific consideration.

Every event, and magical influence is a kind of event, depends on an array of conditions:

M = (c1, c2, ..., c3)

And it happens with some probability. Depending on conditions the probability varies. Magical influence depends on such conditions as, for example, as personal power, adept's health, weather, time of the day etc. Some of them produce more influence on the final result, some -- less. And on the ground of the current meaning of these parameters the probability of success of magical influence is defined. Thus the more personal power you have, the better you feel, the more suitable the wether and time is the more probability of success you recieve.

And now we approach the most interesting fact: according to the main rule of the theory of the probability, the probability of every event lies between 0% and 100%, but it is never equal to these meanings.

So there's nothing impossible in tht existance. And there's nothing binding also.